The French real estate market is never completely tamed: even when access to credit loosens, there remain areas of uncertainty and unpredictable movements. Since the beginning of 2024, securing a mortgage has become a bit less challenging, but the number of transactions is still far from the frenzy seen before the health crisis. Interest rates are beginning to show a timid decline; however, they continue to cool many purchasing projects. And in the rental market, the pressure has reached a rarely seen level, especially in major cities, where supply is scarce.
As the months go by, regional contrasts are becoming more pronounced. Where some had hoped for a return to normal, the gaps are widening. Among medium-sized cities, several are showing unexpected price growth, in contrast to the major metropolitan areas where the trend is reversing. Paris, for its part, is taking a pause, defying all predictions. This shifting landscape calls into question many certainties in the sector.
Where does the French real estate market really stand today?
The latest analyses from notaries in France and Insee leave no room for doubt: the real estate market is clearly slowing down. In the first quarter of 2024, several indicators have turned red. Here are the main findings:
- Purchases of existing homes are significantly decreasing,
- The number of sales is declining everywhere, including in major urban areas.
Prices are following the same trajectory. Paris, the symbol of the national market, is experiencing notable declines, while some cities in the Southwest or along the Mediterranean coast are holding steady, maintaining relative stability.
Further reading : Essential Real Estate Trends for 2024: Tips and Opportunities to Seize
The dynamics of mortgage interest rates are also weighing heavily on demand. After a spectacular rise in 2023, rates are stabilizing around 4%. Nothing catastrophic, but high enough to deter many potential buyers. Banks, for their part, remain cautious: lending criteria remain strict, limiting households’ access to financing. The result: a transitional period is settling in, marked by a contraction in purchasing power and widespread caution among buyers.
Local dynamics tell a more varied story. Lyon, Marseille, Bordeaux, Toulouse: all are showing adjustments, sometimes severe. In contrast, Perpignan or certain suburban areas are resisting, sometimes buoyed by remote work which reshuffles the cards of territorial attractiveness. The price indices published each quarter confirm this fragmentation of the landscape: regional disparities, marked differences between apartments and houses, and a rebalancing of values. To keep track of these developments week by week, the information on Immobilier Hebdo provides regular updates on transactions and economic analyses.
Prices, rates, taxation: what will (really) change in 2025 and 2026
The outlook for 2025 outlines a new phase for the French real estate market. Recent data from notaries and Insee allow for the anticipation of several major movements:
- Real estate prices, which could experience new fluctuations,
- Credit rates, likely to decrease if the European Central Bank adjusts its policy,
- Taxation, the subject of upcoming discussions and reforms.
After rising in 2023, interest rates are expected to experience a period of calm. It is not excluded that some banks may ease their grip a bit, even though caution remains the rule, especially for first-time buyers. Solvency requirements remain high, and the context remains uncertain.
On the taxation side, several schemes like Pinel or Jeanbrun are undergoing significant changes. For owners of energy-intensive properties, upcoming announcements regarding environmental standards and renovation aids will be closely monitored. The territories of the first ring of the Paris region, Saint-Denis, Aubervilliers, La Courneuve, find themselves on the front lines: rental pressure, a reshaping market, new opportunities for those looking to invest.
| Period | Real estate prices (trend) | Mortgage rates | Taxation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Slight decline, regional stabilization | Stable, around 4% | Reforms in preparation |
| 2025-2026 | Stabilization, possible localized rebounds | Moderate decline possible | New developments on incentive schemes |
It is becoming essential to track real estate price indices, as well as economic notes, to anticipate developments. The coming months will be synonymous with adaptation for all stakeholders, with local markets increasingly distinguishing themselves and a gradual overhaul of the fiscal and regulatory framework.
What scenarios for real estate in France by 2026?
By 2026, the French real estate market is preparing to explore several directions. Everything will depend on the monetary and budgetary choices made in the coming months. A rebound in transactions could well occur if the stabilization of credit rates is confirmed. The slowdown observed in 2023 and 2024, with a drop in sales volume in most major cities, does not signal the end of the market: in certain segments, such as new high-energy-performance properties, demand remains strong.
Three trajectories stand out
- A gradual stabilization, where prices and volumes regain balance thanks to renewed confidence and a more predictable monetary environment.
- A territorial reshaping: major metropolitan areas see their markets evolve in favor of suburbs or medium-sized cities, with a return of first-time buyers where supply adapts.
- An accentuation of regional disparities: areas like the Rhône-Alpes region or the Atlantic coast could capitalize on their attractiveness, while others will continue to see transactions dwindle.
The energy transition is already disrupting habits. Between diagnostics, renovations, and new standards, it is becoming a criterion for choice, even for arbitration, for buyers. Now, households anticipate the cost of renovations before committing, and professionals rely on fine analysis: market indices, local economic conditions, and the ability to adjust in the face of uncertainty. The French real estate market, far from being static, is moving at the pace of these shocks and this ongoing adaptation. The next major shift could well occur where it is least expected.